The Catablog
Archive for November, 2009
Holiday Wishes from Arandell Corporation

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Arandell Corporation wishes you a very Happy Thanksgiving…from our family to yours.
9 Reasons to Mail More in 2010

“The economy is weak.”
“My budgets are frozen.”
“We are barely surviving as is.”
“I don’t have enough staff or time to even think about prospecting.”
“I have plenty of non-active buyers on my file who I can turn to.”
And the best one…..”business is not good right now.”
If you answered, “yes” to any of these, you are a great candidate to ramp up your prospecting in 2010, or for most of you, to actually begin prospecting again after a year or two of not doing it. Why? Because the cost and timing to acquire a new customer could not be better.
First let’s look at the cost side of the equation.�
1. The USPS has frozen rates for 2010 and is considering offering incentives to mail more. Even without the incentives, rates are locked for 2010 and for budgeting purposes you have a stable fixed cost.
2. List brokers are willing to deal like never before. Co-ops are also loosening their rules and barriers to entry. Discounts and incentives that were once for only the large mailers (are there any of those left?) are now being offered to virtually all mailers.
3. Arandell Corporation is also in a great position to provide you with the most innovative solutions to reduce your costs and deliver your message as efficiently as possible. Technology in the industry has never been better.
4. Your other suppliers have also been driven to invest in the tools, technologies and personnel to keep you going (as well as themselves) and will do whatever they can to earn your business (and to stay alive themselves).
The other side of the equation is timing and as they say…”timing is everything.”
1. Despite the fact that the economy is shaky, there are people out there still wanting and needing goods and services. If you have been to a mall lately, they are still very crowded. Yes, some stores are doing better than others, but isn’t that always the case and isn’t that what marketing is all about?….finding and talking to people who fit your target? There will always be winners and losers.
2. Because there are fewer competitors of all kinds out there, there are fewer catalogs and direct mail pieces being delivered. If you have a good product, demonstrate value, provide a great experience and deliver memorable customer service, you will be noticed and successful. Again, as bad as it may be out there, people are buying, people are going to stores and people are looking to feel good. What an opportunity.
3. You also have the opportunity to capture customers, maybe for a long time. Keep the messages and your brand going. Once you stop, your “loyal” customers will likely forget about you and stop as well. The people that never heard from you have fewer messages to decipher and that is a good thing for you, so again, now is the time.
4. The amount of available data used to find the “best” prospects is also at an all-time high. Today, you can slice and dice using an infinite amount of data if you feel so inclined.
5. The methods to reach new customers are greater than ever. Every channel has potential for you in today’s environment. Do not assume that your potential customer is not using all of them in their daily lives today.
So, while it won’t be easy, the path to growing your business is a little smoother than it once was and may ever be. You don’t have to jump in with both feet but now is the time to test the water….. at least with your toes.
Because that’s the Way it has Always Been Done
Have you heard that line before? If so, I hope you don’t accept it as your “final answer.” Just because something has always been done a certain way, that’s no reason to keep doing it the same way, unless of course the method has no room for improvement. And, I certainly hope you have not been applying the “because it has always been done that way” mentality to your catalog design. You can still maintain brand image while also changing up variables such as layouts, messages, formats, sizes, page counts, in-home dates, etc. In fact, you should be changing things up to measure how response rates fluctuate from one catalog design to the next.
Maybe you’re a cataloger who has always mailed letter-size booklets or “Slim Jims.” How has your response rate changed since the USPS implemented its new tabbing regulations earlier this year? If it has gone down, maybe it’s time to try something new, like a traditional upright format. Have you typically produced a catalog with an oblong format? With the USPS bringing out new Droop Test regulations, now is the perfect time to implement a new format for your catalog because the oblong is not going to survive with the new droop/deflection standards. Could you transition to an upright or square format? Try it! Have you always treated all customers, regardless of purchase history, the same? If so, maybe it’s time to use a more dynamic approach to how you target customers. Do you use database marketing to help you with those efforts? If not, it’s time.
all about ROI recently released its “50 Best Tips of 2009“; I highly recommend reading it, as it gives some great ideas for changing up your current multichannel marketing plan (or offering you reassurance for the one you already have). Regardless of what strategies you decide to implement going forward, don’t apply the same ones as this year just because “that’s the way it has always been done.” That’s a sure fire way to bring your success to a standstill. Change is good. Embrace it!
Paper Market Predictions for 2010
My Paper Prognostications for 2010
Gazing into the crystal ball, here are some things that I see coming in the New Year:
Supply:
Throughout 2009, seldom has a week gone by where we have not read about a sawmill closing, a paper machine being idled or a mill closing their doors. Supply is what paper mills can control the most, and to try to keep pricing in line with demand, they have taken a large chunk of capacity out of the system. The mills have also looked at their platforms and tweaked schedules to fit demand. In some cases, grades and basis weights that were run two to three times per month are now only run once, and some are only run once every six weeks. This has resulted in us seeing lead times and LDC dates push out to four to six weeks on some grades, where they had been only two to three weeks earlier in the year.
Inventories have been worked down to lower-than-normal levels, and I believe that paper mills are going to engage in rush inventory building or order pre-making due to their desire to have cash readily available and not tied up in inventory.
So, with reduced schedules and inventories and fewer machines making paper these days, I would watch for some LDC extensions for the next couple of months. I expect more mill downtime in the first and second quarters as demand decreases over the first half of 2010. If the second half of 2010 is busier than 2009, which I certainly hope it is, I expect longer lead times and potentially some tight markets, especially for SC grades. A key thing to remember is that it is not going to be as easy to get paper during the second and third quarters of 2010 as it was in 2009. Plan ahead.
Demand:
Demand estimates for coated paper in 2010 range from a 2% to 8% INCREASE over 2009 from what I can see. In speaking with the paper mills, a general consensus is that 2009 was horrible, but 2010 should see a small improvement; somewhere in the 3% to 6% range and this is what they are budgeting for. I believe they are hoping that the holiday season goes well and that companies will start to print again. I believe (and hope) they are right in their predictions.
Price:
The increase announcements that were to have taken effect in October never really materialized. I believe that was more of an effort by the coated and uncoated producers to try to stop the pricing reductions of the second and third quarters more than trying to get more for their grades.
But, rest assured that there will be more increases coming in 2010. Several factors will lead to this, but the big factor is the elimination of the black liquor tax credit at the end of 2009. During the third quarter, U.S. paper mills that had pulping capacity took in almost $1 billion in tax credits from this program. In many cases, this helped the mills to go from red to black on the balance sheets. Well, that is going away. Input costs for the mills have been rising and this credit has been helping them weather the storm. Watch for an announcement sometime in January. That probably will not hold for long (if at all), but there will be at least $3.00/cwt worth of paper increases in 2010. Plan on it for the second half of the year.
If you have any questions, please just let me know! Thank you again for your business!
No Postal Increase in 2010 – Really?
Since John Potter’s (USPS Postmaster General) recent announcement that there will be no postal increase for 2010, I have been receiving a large volume of calls and e-mails from clients and prospects expressing their extreme delight over the issue. Mr. Potter made the announcement in mid-October that there would be no increase in 2010 for Market-Dominant Products, including Standard Mail, First-Class Mail, periodicals and single-piece Parcel Post. I was somewhat surprised at this decision based on the difficult financial situation facing the USPS, but hopefully, this move will be an encouragement for marketers to get back in the mail or to increase their current circulation. I have seen signs this may be happening as catalogers plan for their 2010 mailings. No postal increase makes that task a lot easier and less stressful.
Throughout the past couple of weeks, there has been some speculation as to whether rates could rise outside of a CPI increase or exigent rate increase. Please rest assured that the USPS has confirmed that there will be absolutely NO rate increase for Market-Dominant Products (again, Standard Mail, First-Class Mail, periodicals and single-piece Parcel Post) in 2010. So, lock in those marketing budgets now…no need to wait for additional postal rate updates from the USPS. Keep your postal budget as is and take advantage of this opportunity to increase your mailings to reach more prospects or to re-activate prior customers.
Questions? Call or email me any time!
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