Arandell

The Catablog

Posts Tagged ‘web offset paper’

Things are getting tight!

Posted on May 27, 2010

Blake Hutchison, Vice President, ProcurementWow, what a difference a few price increase announcements make on demand!  I think the mills got the desired effect they were looking for.

Lead times are increasing and increasing rapidly.  Coated groundwood grades seem to be accelerating the quickest, with lead times already out 5 – 7 weeks.  Coated freesheet, while not as bad, is still out 3 – 5 weeks.

The greatest factor in how quickly you can get paper is the basis weight.  If you print on a heavier weight (70#, 80#, 100#) your lead times won’t be as long.  38# through 60# basis weights, both coated groundwood and coated freesheet, are in high demand and their lead times are accelerating faster than the heavier weights.  32# – 38# is a little better, but not by much.

My advice would be to get your paper situation figured out quickly and at least get an LDC date to work off of so that you can properly estimate how much time you are going to need. 

If you have any questions, please don’t hesitate to email me  or call me at 800-558-8724

Thank you.

Axing Myths About Controlling Paper Costs

Posted on October 15, 2009

Blake Hutchison, Vice President, ProcurementI recently read an article in Multichannel Merchant that detailed some ideas about how a cataloger can gain control of their paper spend for 2010 and how these ideas will always result in lower costs.  In reviewing these ideas, I found some of them to contain the truth, but not “the whole truth” as they say in court.  So I thought I would provide some perspective from a printer who supplies paper for many of our clients.

Idea #1:  Establish long term pricing now

Pricing levels have decreased some 20% YTD.  And while the buyers of paper have had the upper hand throughout the year, that will change in 2010.  The producers will be able to pass along some increases.

Printers have the upper hand when it comes to negotiating pricing caps.  When an end user is negotiating their prices with a mill (through a merchant), their only negotiating tool is their annual tonnage.  A printer has the ability to take the annual tonnage of all of their paper clients, combine them and use the whole as leverage with their mill partners, thereby increasing the paper buying power of their clients.  By being part of the whole, you can significantly limit your exposure to these increases.

Ideas #2 & #3:  Challenge your printer to reduce waste and use paper calculators

Paper waste is a natural part of the printing process. A printer is not only challenged on their waste factors by end users, but also by the industry as a whole.  The more they can reduce their waste factors, the better position they are in to reduce paper consumption costs.  A “paper calculator” is a very generic tool that some merchants have put together to try to challenge the printer on their waste and create an “in” with an end user. 

The printer knows their presses. They know the most efficient way produce a job on press.  They know what grades, basis weights, finishes and specific brands of paper perform the best on their presses.  They work everyday on ways to reduce paper waste factors.  Yes, it is important to consider waste.  But to use a very generic calculator to come up with tonnage numbers that really have no basis in reality is a good way to create contention. Trust me; the printer is doing their very best on your behalf.

Ideas #4 & #5:  Reduce your cover and text weights

Always a good thing to consider when looking for ways to reduce paper costs.  But BE CAREFUL.  It might not always be the best idea.  The USPS has just announced new “droop test” regulations that have a lot of end users scrambling to HIGHER basis weights in order for their pieces to pass the test.   

You also might want to consider how your printed piece will look.  As you decrease your basis weight, you are sacrificing opacity and creating “show through”.  Your printer should have plenty of printed samples of what downgrading in basis weight will look like.

Idea #6:  Ship rail

Remember the idea of combining purchases to leverage paper prices?  The same can be done with shipping costs.  The more paper you are ordering as a whole will dictate whether or not you are able to ship rail.  An end-user who prints three or four times annually only gets to combine those tons in a shipment.  But a printer who may have three or four other paper clients printing right around the same time can combine those tons and get them to ship rail.  A printer has the ability to forecast, well in advance, and is in a much better position to work with mills to achieve maximum transit cost savings.

Some other ideas not mentioned in the article:

  • For those end users who purchase their own paper: pay close attention to your consumption reports. The leftover inventory that is listed on your report is REAL MONEY and should be utilized as quickly as possible. Make sure you work with your printer to find a home for it as quickly as possible.
  • If an opportunity to use it isn’t readily available, work with your printer to get rid of the paper. They might have an opportunity to use it on another printing for another client and might buy it from you.
  • Do you know what the storage and handling charges are at your printer? If not, you should. The storage and handling of paper is a real cost to a printer. If they aren’t supplying the paper, they are going to need to charge for those services.
  • In many cases, if the printer is able to supply the paper, they will waive those charges.

Questions? Please feel free to contact me any time at 800-558-8724, ext. 165 or BJHutchison@arandell.com.

The Effect of Post-Consumer Waste Paper (PCW Content)

Posted on October 07, 2009

Blake Hutchison, Vice President, ProcurementAs a catalog printer, from time-to-time, Arandell will receive concerns from environmentalists about the products we produce and the materials used to produce them. (You can imagine, as the one charged with purchasing all o f our paper, I take an interest in these concerns because most of them revolve around paper!)  In a previous article I addressed the “greenness” of catalogs and direct mail pieces. As I continue to research the environmental impact of direct mail pieces I am finding helpful tools to calculate the positive and negative impact of direct mail.

A tool that I found most interesting was created by the paper suppler West Linn. The tool helps calculate the impact of using PCW (Post-Consumer Waste) paper. Click here to use the tool. This is a impressive calculator because users are given the opportunity to change multiple variables, such as PCW percentage and paper tonnage and basis weight on their paper grades.

At Arandell, we implement best practice green initiatives in both the office and manufacturing facilities. We are certified to produce catalogs on FSC (Forest Stewardship Council), SFI (Sustainable Forestry Initiative) and PEFC (Programme for the Endorsement of Forest Certification schemes) certified papers.

If you are interested in using “green” certified papers let us know! Along with aforementioned calculator we have various tools at Arandell that can help you calculate the positive environmental impact your paper choice will create.

Does Summer Bring a Better Paper Market?

Posted on June 16, 2009

Blake Hutchison, Vice President, ProcurementCould it be true?  Could the paper market be correcting and things starting to look up?

In discussing current market affairs with many of our paper suppliers, the answer seems to be a guarded “yes.”  While the first and second quarters have seen a tremendous amount of downtime taken (both temporary and permanent), the mills feel that the moves they have made have been adequate enough to balance their supply with market demand.  We shall see.  But one thing is for sure: any more months of +/- 20% paper ship rates, and the paper mills could be in more trouble than they are now.  No one wants to see that.

What does this guarded optimism mean for prices?  Well one thing is for sure: the drastic reduction in paper prices we have seen the last two quarters cannot be sustained.  The mills have given back most, if not more than what they gained over the last 18-24 months.  And while the mills’ costs have decreased as well, they have not decreased in tandem with price decreases. 

Does this mean that increases are on the way?  I highly doubt it.  Are we going to continue to see the vast differences in pricing levels that we have seen over the past six months?  I doubt that as well.  Whatever your paper price is today, feel confident that you are not going to see any increases through the end of the year. Also feel confident that you are not “missing out” on some paper price deals by continuing to shop around. 

One thing to watch:  black liquor credits.  What is that?  Black liquor is a by-product of the paper making process that is created and then re-used elsewhere down the process chain.  Some mills have been able to apply for, and receive large amounts of government money under a loophole in a budget bill passed in 2005.  That loophole is set to expire soon, and some members of Congress are looking to close it sooner.  Those mills that are relying on this additional loophole funding now might be caught in a bind sooner rather than later if this loophole closes before it is supposed to.  If you would like more information about this, please just let me know.

The Changing Paper World, Spring 09 Edition

Posted on April 29, 2009

Blake Hutchison, Vice President, ProcurementIn looking back at what I was predicting to happen in the first part of 2009, I have found that I was right about decreased demand, decreased pricing and increased downtime and capacity reductions. But I was not envisioning these types of numbers:

Decreased Demand
Through a variety of different end-user actions, such as reductions in page counts, changes in trim sizes, pared-down mailing lists and cancelled print projects, consumption of coated paper in North America has fallen over 25% since the third quarter of 2008. So far in 2009, shipments of paper have fallen by over 20% on a monthly basis as compared to shipments in 2008. This trend is expected to continue until at least the second half of 2009.

Because of these actions, the paper mills have attempted to match this drop in demand with supply. The easiest way to do this for them is to simply shut down their machines.

Paper Prices
After a year and a half of almost constant, quarterly price increases, paper prices are retreating and retreating quickly. No more is this evident than in the coated groundwood stocks. Coated freesheet prices have fallen to levels last seen in June and July of 2008, and they continue to fall. Coated groundwood prices, however, continue to fall and they are a moving target on a daily basis. Part of the reason for this is the greater number of groundwood manufacturers than freesheet producers.

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